Week Ahead: EUR Inflation Dumps + Friday Jobs Gauntlet (NFP + Canada) Set the Tone
- DeltaFunded
- Jan 5
- 5 min read
This is a “pricing week” more than a “policy week”: markets will mainly trade inflation prints in Europe and labor data in North America. Expect rate paths (not earnings) to drive the biggest FX and yields moves. If you’re running risk, the real action clusters around Tuesday 3:00 PM (EUR CPI burst), Wednesday 12:00 PM (EUR HICP cluster), and Friday 3:30 PM (CAD jobs + US payrolls/wages dump).
Monday (Jan 5)
No major releases listed. Typical pre-positioning day: watch how EUR and USD rates open the week, because Tuesday/Wednesday CPI prints can quickly reprice front-end yields.
Tuesday, January 6 — EUR inflation day (and an ECB headline-risk mic)
10:15 AM — EUR: ECB’s Cipollone speech (locked)
Details: locked → treat as headline risk rather than a forecastable macro event.
How it trades: EUR can whip on any hint about the inflation path, wage dynamics, or “timing of cuts.”
Most sensitive: EURUSD, Bund yields (2Y especially), Eurozone banks/equities.
3:00 PM — EUR: CPI (Dec) preliminary + HICP (Dec) preliminary
CPI (MoM) (Dec) Prel
Actual: — | Consensus: 0.3% | Previous: -0.2%
Implication: A hotter MoM can revive “sticky inflation” pricing → hawkish for rates, EUR-supportive.
CPI (YoY) (Dec) Prel
Actual: — | Consensus: — | Previous: 2.3%
Implication: With consensus not shown, direction matters: any upside surprise tends to lift yields and EUR.
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec) Prel
Actual: — | Consensus: 2.2% | Previous: 2.6%
Implication: The market will read this as the “ECB-facing” inflation print.
Above 2.2%: slower disinflation → less dovish ECB pricing (EUR up, Bund yields up).
Below 2.2%: faster disinflation → more cuts priced (EUR down, Bund yields down).
Wednesday, January 7 — AUD inflation pulse, heavy EUR HICP cluster, then US growth/labor signals
2:30 AM — AUD: CPI (YoY) (Nov) + Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Nov)
CPI (YoY)
Actual: — | Consensus: — | Previous: 3.8%
Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY)
Actual: — | Consensus: — | Previous: 3.3%
How it trades: Trimmed mean is the “sticky” signal—bigger driver for rates.
Risk framing
Hotter than prior: hawkish → AUD up, Aussie yields up, equities can wobble.
Cooler: dovish → AUD down, yields down, equities may breathe easier.
Most sensitive: AUDUSD, AU front-end yields, rate-sensitive equities.
9:00 AM — EUR: Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
Actual: — | Consensus: — | Previous: 0.9%
How it trades: Second-tier vs inflation, but can matter if it reinforces “soft landing vs stagnation.”
Most sensitive: EUR crosses (lighter), Eurozone equities.
12:00 PM — EUR: Core HICP + HICP (Dec) preliminary cluster
This is a rates trader’s time block—multiple prints drop together.
Core HICP (MoM) (Dec) Prel
Actual: — | Consensus: — | Previous: -0.5%
Core HICP (YoY) (Dec) Prel
Actual: — | Consensus: 2.4% | Previous: 2.4%
Implication: Core is the credibility check for disinflation.
Above 2.4%: hawkish tilt → EUR bid, Bund yields up.
Below 2.4%: dovish tilt → EUR offered, Bund yields down.
HICP (MoM) (Dec) Prel
Actual: — | Consensus: — | Previous: -0.3%
HICP (YoY) (Dec) Prel
Actual: — | Consensus: 2.1% | Previous: 2.1%
Implication: If headline matches but core deviates, core usually wins the tape.
Most sensitive: EURUSD, Bund curve, Eurozone cyclicals vs defensives.
3:15 PM — USD: ADP Employment Change (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 47K | Previous: -32K
How it trades: A positioning catalyst into Friday NFP; not always reliable, but can move front-end UST and USD intraday.
5:00 PM — USD: ISM Services PMI (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 52.3 | Previous: 52.6
Implication:
Above 52.3 (especially with hot prices-paid if traders focus on it): growth/inflation resilience → hawkish for rates.
Below: growth scare → dovish repricing, risk-off potential.
Most sensitive: USD, UST yields, US equities (rate-sensitive sectors).
Thursday, January 8 — Asia trade pulse + Swiss inflation
2:30 AM — AUD: Trade Balance (MoM) (Nov)
Actual: — | Consensus: — | Previous: 4,385M
How it trades: Usually second-order vs inflation, but big surprises can hit AUD via terms-of-trade narrative.
Most sensitive: AUD, iron ore proxies, AU equities at the margin.
9:30 AM — CHF: CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 0.1% | Previous: 0%
Implication: CHF is ultra-sensitive to “deflation risk vs stabilization.”
Above 0.1%: less deflation fear → CHF can firm, Swiss yields up.
At/Below 0%: deflation narrative → CHF can soften, yields down.
Most sensitive: EURCHF / USDCHF, Swiss front-end rates.
Friday, January 9 — The main event: North America labor + US wages (classic volatility)
3:30 AM — CNY: CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 0.8% | Previous: 0.7%
Implication: Low inflation keeps stimulus expectations alive.
Higher CPI: slightly less easing pressure → modest risk-on impulse.
Lower CPI: deflation anxiety → can weigh on commodities/risk.
Most sensitive: CNH, Asia FX, industrial commodities (sentiment channel).
12:00 PM — EUR: Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
Actual: — | Consensus: 1.6% | Previous: 1.5%
How it trades: Growth confirmation print after the week’s inflation focus; can tweak EUR sentiment but usually won’t override CPI/HICP earlier in week.
3:30 PM — CAD: Jobs + USD: Payrolls & wages (biggest volatility window)
This is the week’s main event because it hits rates expectations and two major FX blocs at once.
CAD: Net Change in Employment (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: -5K | Previous: 53.6K
CAD: Unemployment Rate (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 6.7% | Previous: 6.5%
CAD implication: Weak jobs + higher unemployment = dovish BoC pricing → CAD offered (USDCAD up), Canada yields down.
USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
USD: Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 3.6% | Previous: 3.5%
USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
Actual: — | Consensus: 57K | Previous: 64K
USD implication: This is a wages-and-rates print disguised as a jobs number.
Payrolls can be “meh,” but earnings can still drive a hawkish repricing.
The typical “3-wave reaction” (NFP-style)
Headline payrolls hits first (knee-jerk USD/yields move).
Wages + unemployment rate take control (the “Fed lens”).
Repricing & fade/extend as traders map it onto the next policy path and risk positioning into the close.
Scenario framing (what usually moves)
More hawkish than expected (stronger jobs OR hotter wages, unemployment lower than 6.7% in Canada / stronger US wage impulse):
USD up, UST yields up (front-end leads), equities can wobble (higher-rate pressure), gold can dip initially.
CAD up if Canada jobs beat and unemployment doesn’t rise.
More dovish than expected (weak jobs + softer wages, higher unemployment):
USD down, UST yields down, equities can pop (rate relief), gold can catch a bid.
CAD down if Canada misses and unemployment rises → USDCAD spikes.
5:00 PM — USD: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan) preliminary
Actual: — | Consensus: 53 | Previous: 52.9
How it trades: If markets are still digesting NFP, this can add a late shove to USD/rates via “growth mood,” but usually second to payrolls.
Volatility Windows
Tuesday 10:15 AM: ECB speaker risk (locked) → headline-driven EUR whips possible.
Tuesday 3:00 PM: EUR CPI/HICP triple drop → EUR + Bunds can gap.
Wednesday 12:00 PM: EUR HICP/core cluster → largest EUR rates window of the week.
Wednesday 3:15 PM – 5:00 PM: ADP into ISM Services → USD rates/FX can trend into the close.
Friday 3:30 PM: CAD jobs + US payrolls/wages → peak week volatility across USDCAD, DXY, yields, indices.
Top 5 Market-Moving
Tuesday 3:00 PM — EUR CPI/HICP preliminary prints
Wednesday 5:00 PM — USD ISM Services PMI
Wednesday 12:00 PM — EUR Core HICP (YoY) + HICP (YoY) preliminary cluster
Friday 3:30 PM — USD Nonfarm Payrolls + Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY)
Friday 3:30 PM — CAD Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
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