Week Ahead (Dec 1–5): Speakers, PMIs, and a Heavy Midweek Data

This week’s calendar is built for momentum traders and risk managers alike: two high-profile central bank speakers, a pair of U.S. ISM prints, and a midweek cluster spanning Australia GDP, China services activity, Swiss inflation,

and U.S. labor signals. Europe stays busy with preliminary inflation, retail sales, and final-ish growth reads, while Friday closes with Canada jobs and U.S. sentiment plus core PCE re-prints.

Monday, Dec 1 — U.S. kickoff: Fed + Manufacturing focus

3:00 PM — USD: Fed Chair Powell speech (locked)The market will treat this as the tone-setter for the week. Expect reactions to nuance, not headlines.

5:00 PM — USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

• Prior: 48.7

• Forecast: 48.6A sub-50 print keeps the “soft patch” narrative alive. A surprise higher reading would likely hit rates and the dollar first, equities second.

Tuesday, Dec 2 — Europe: inflation front and center

12:00 PM — EUR: HICP (Nov) prelim (Core + Headline, MoM + YoY)

• Core YoY: 2.4% prior → 2.5% forecast

• Headline YoY: 2.1% prior → 2.2% forecast

• Core MoM: 0.3% prior

• Headline MoM: 0.2% prior

This is the kind of release that can move rates even if FX looks calm at first glance. If the prelim prints confirm stickiness, EUR rates can reprice quickly. If it’s cooler than expected, the “policy patience” crowd gets louder.

Wednesday, Dec 3 — The week’s main event cluster

2:30 AM — AUD: GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

• Prior: 0.6%

• Forecast: 0.7%The AUD tends to respond cleanly to this one when it deviates. Watch the first 5–15 minutes for the real move.

3:45 AM — CNY: RatingDog Services PMI (Nov)

• Prior: 52.6

• Forecast: 52.0Even when markets treat this as “background,” it can still feed broader risk tone in Asia hours.

9:30 AM — CHF: CPI (YoY) (Nov)

• Prior: 0.1%

• Forecast: 0.1%Low-vol on paper, but CHF can react if the print forces a rethink around the SNB’s comfort zone.

3:15 PM — USD: ADP Employment Change (Nov)

• Prior: 42K

• Forecast: 20KThis is one of those releases that gets traded even by people who swear they don’t trade it. If it misses hard, it can spark a quick “rates down / USD down” impulse—until the next data point hits.

3:30 PM — EUR: ECB President Lagarde speech (locked)5:30 PM — EUR: ECB President Lagarde speech (locked)Two speaking slots in one day is a gift (or a trap) for intraday volatility. The first one can set direction; the second one can reverse it if the messaging isn’t perfectly consistent.

5:00 PM — USD: ISM Services PMI (Nov)

• Prior: 52.4

• Forecast: 52.1With services still carrying the U.S. growth story, this can matter more than manufacturing. If it prints hot, USD and front-end yields can react fast. If it prints cool, it can reinforce the “growth is moderating” theme that ADP might already tee up.

Thursday, Dec 4 — AUD trade, EUR consumption

2:30 AM — AUD: Trade Balance (Oct)

• Prior: 3,938MA big surprise can move AUD quickly, especially if it reshapes expectations for domestic demand vs. external support.

12:00 PM — EUR: Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

• Prior: 1.0%

• Forecast: 1.2%This is a useful directional check alongside Tuesday’s inflation: consumption resilience tends to keep the rates conversation lively.

Friday, Dec 5 — Canada jobs + U.S. inflation/sentiment wrap

12:00 PM — EUR: GDP s.a. (Q3) QoQ / YoY

• QoQ: 0.2% prior → 0.2% forecast

• YoY: 1.4% prior → 1.4% forecastLikely more confirmation than surprise—unless revisions show up.

3:30 PM — CAD: Net Change in Employment (Nov)

• Prior: 66.6K

• Forecast: -7.6K

3:30 PM — CAD: Unemployment Rate (Nov)

• Prior: 6.9%

• Forecast: 7.0%This is your CAD volatility window. If jobs roll over more than expected, CAD can weaken quickly—especially if the market starts leaning into a more dovish path.

3:30 PM — USD: Core PCE Price Index (Sep) MoM / YoY

• MoM: 0.2% prior → 0.2% forecast

• YoY: 2.9% prior → 2.9% forecastTreat it like a potential “confirmation catalyst.” If it matches expectations, it may simply validate the week’s earlier moves rather than create new ones.

5:00 PM — USD: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) prelim

• Prior: 51

• Forecast: 52A clean end-of-week pulse for risk tone. The surprise factor here is often bigger than traders want to admit.