Trading Week 11-15 August

The week kicks off with a packed schedule of major economic data releases and central bank updates, likely to influence markets across currencies, bonds, and equities. Here’s a breakdown of what’s ahead.

Monday, August 11

Europe’s inflation check-in:At 11:00 CET, the Eurozone will release July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, both the EU-harmonized and national versions. Inflation is expected to hold steady at 1.7% year-over-year, a sign that price pressures remain subdued.

Tuesday, August 12

This is shaping up to be the most eventful day of the week, with critical updates from Australia, the UK, the Eurozone, and the US.

United Kingdom

• 02:01 BST – The BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales report for July will show how consumer spending fared. Last month’s growth of 2.7% may soften to 2.1%.

• 09:00 BST – A cluster of UK labor market indicators hits:

  • Average earnings (with and without bonuses) expected to slow slightly from 5% to 4.7%.

  • Unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.7%.

  • Claimant count change anticipated at +20.8K, compared to +25.9K last month.

Australia

• 07:30 AEST – The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, with expectations of a cut from 3.85% to 3.6%. The accompanying Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement, and a press conference will follow, providing insight into the bank’s outlook.

Eurozone

• 12:00 CET – The ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey for August will gauge investor confidence. Expectations point to improvement, but the Current Situation index remains deep in negative territory.

United States

• 15:30 ET – US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for July will be closely watched:

  • Headline inflation (YoY) expected at 2.8% vs. 2.7% prior.

  • Core CPI (ex food & energy) expected to hold around 3% YoY.

• Fed speeches – Richmond Fed President Barkin (17:00) and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (17:30) will give remarks.

• 21:00 ET – July’s Monthly Budget Statement is due, with a projected surplus of $27B.

Wednesday, August 13

A quieter day, but still important for inflation watchers.

• 04:30 AEST – Australia’s Wage Price Index (Q2) is expected to tick down slightly to 0.8% QoQ from 0.9%.

• 09:00 CET – Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July is expected to match previous readings at 0.4% MoM and 1.8% YoY.

Happy trading,