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BoE + ECB + US CPI: a Thursday “triple-header” week that can whipsaw FX and rates

This week is all about central-bank reaction functions colliding with fresh inflation prints. The main trade is rates → FX → equities, with GBP and EUR especially sensitive into Thursday, and JPY waiting for Friday’s BoJ headline risk.

Below is the calendar rewritten for how it typically trades — what I’d watch, where the landmines are, and which markets tend to move first.



Monday (Dec 15) — Canada inflation sets the CAD tone early



3:30 PM — CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Nov)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: TBA | Previous: 2.9%

  • How it trades: core CPI is the “policy glue.” A surprise higher usually re-prices Canadian front-end yields up and supports CAD.

  • Most sensitive: USDCAD, Canada 2Y/5Y yields, TSX; oil can amplify CAD moves.

3:30 PM — CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 2.4% | Previous: 2.2%

  • Implication map:

    • Above 2.4% (hawkish tilt): CAD bid, Canada yields up, risk of tighter/longer BoC.

    • Below 2.4% (dovish tilt): CAD offered, yields down, easier financial conditions.


Tuesday, December 16 — Europe PMI pulse + a chunky US macro dump



9:00 AM — GBP Claimant Count Change (Nov)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 22.3K | Previous: 29K

  • Read-through: bigger claimant rise = softer labour market = dovish BoE risk.

9:00 AM — GBP Employment Change (3M) (Oct)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: TBA | Previous: -22K

  • What matters: direction + revisions. Weak prints tend to pressure GBP via lower rate expectations.

9:00 AM — GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Oct)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 5.1% | Previous: 5.0%

  • Trade lens: a tick up toward 5.1% adds growth risk and nudges markets toward dovish BoE pricing.

10:30 AM — EUR HCOB PMIs (Dec Prel)

  • Composite PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 52.4

  • Manufacturing PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus 48.5 | Previous 48.2

  • Services PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus 52.8 | Previous 53.1

  • Why traders care: PMIs hit EUR rates first (Bunds) and then EURUSD. Services is usually the inflation/growth “tell.”

11:00 AM — EUR HCOB PMIs (Dec Prel)

  • Composite PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 52.8

  • Manufacturing PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus 49.9 | Previous 49.6

  • Services PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus 53.9 | Previous 53.6

  • Note: back-to-back PMI blocks can create two-step volatility in EUR crosses as desks reconcile the releases.

11:30 AM — GBP S&P Global PMIs (Dec Prel)

  • Composite PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 51.2

  • Manufacturing PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus 50.2 | Previous 50.2

  • Services PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus 51.5 | Previous 51.3

  • GBP sensitivity: services PMI is the big one for UK pricing; better services = less dovish BoE expectations.

3:30 PM — USD macro cluster (multiple releases listed at the same time)

Retail Sales + Payrolls/Earnings lines (Oct and Nov entries) all stamped 3:30 PM — that’s a recipe for a messy first move and then a reversal once details/revisions are digested.

  • USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): Actual TBA | Consensus 0.2% | Previous 0.2%

  • USD Retail Sales Control Group (Oct): Actual TBA | Consensus 0.3% | Previous -0.1%

  • USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov): Actual TBA | Consensus 35K | Previous TBA

  • USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct): Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 119K

  • USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct): Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 0.2%

  • USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Oct): Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 3.8%

  • USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov): Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous TBA

  • USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov): Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous TBA


How it typically trades:


  • First 1–5 minutes: USD + front-end yields react to the headline payrolls/earnings.

  • Next 5–20 minutes: retail sales/control group and any revisions drive the “real economy” repricing.

  • Most sensitive: DXY / EURUSD / USDJPY, UST 2Y/5Y, S&P futures.

4:45 PM — USD S&P Global PMIs (Dec Prel)

  • Manufacturing PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 52.2

  • Services PMI: Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 54.1

  • Why it matters: usually a secondary mover after the 3:30 PM fireworks — but can extend a trend if it confirms the story.

7:45 PM — CAD BoC’s Governor Macklem speech

  • Headline risk: any pushback (or validation) versus Monday CPI can extend/reverse CAD moves.

  • Most sensitive: USDCAD, Canada 2Y, and rate-cut expectations embedded in OIS.


Wednesday, December 17 — UK inflation day + NZ growth late


9:00 AM — GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Nov)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: TBA | Previous: 0.4%

  • What I’d watch: monthly CPI can trigger sharp GBP knee-jerks if it surprises.

9:00 AM — GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: TBA | Previous: 3.6%

  • Market meaning: downside surprise = dovish BoE repricing; upside = hawkish hold risk.

9:00 AM — GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 3.4% | Previous: 3.4%

  • The real mover: core holding at 3.4% keeps the BoE in “wait-and-see.” A break lower is the cleanest dovish signal.

11:45 PM — NZD GDP (Q3)

  • QoQ: Actual TBA | Consensus 0.9% | Previous -0.9%

  • YoY: Actual TBA | Consensus 1.3% | Previous -0.6%

  • NZD sensitivity: NZDUSD and NZ front-end rates; strong rebound reads risk-on locally, weak print revives easing expectations.


Thursday, December 18 — Main event day: BoE + ECB + US CPI collide


2:00 PM — GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 3.75% | Previous: 4.0%

  • This is wave 1 (the decision): immediate move in GBP and UK front-end gilts.

2:00 PM — GBP BoE Minutes

  • This is wave 2 (the tone): hawkish/dovish language can reverse the first GBP move.

2:00 PM — GBP BoE Monetary Policy Summary — locked

  • Headline risk / limited details: treat as an extra volatility injector; markets will trade any leaks/headlines aggressively.

2:00 PM — GBP BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut / Hike / Unchanged

  • Vote cut: Actual TBA | Consensus 5 | Previous 4

  • Vote hike: Actual TBA | Consensus 0 | Previous 0

  • Vote unchanged: Actual TBA | Consensus 4 | Previous 5

  • This is wave 3 (the split): the vote count often decides whether GBP fades or trends.

Scenario framing (GBP):

  • More hawkish than expected (fewer cutters than 5 / firmer inflation risks): GBP pops, gilts sell off (yields up), UK equities may wobble on higher rates.

  • More dovish than expected (more cutters / softer language): GBP dips, gilts rally (yields down), rate-sensitive UK equities catch a bid.

3:15 PM — EUR ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15%

3:15 PM — EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 2.0% | Previous: 2.0%

3:15 PM — EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement — locked

  • Headline risk / limited details: even without full text, one line can swing EUR rates and EURUSD.

3:45 PM — EUR ECB Press Conference — locked

  • Big volatility risk: the presser is where EUR trends often start (or die).

Scenario framing (EUR):

  • More hawkish (inflation vigilance / less eagerness to ease): EUR up, Bund yields up, EuroStoxx can feel pressure.

  • More dovish (growth worries / openness to cuts): EUR down, Bund yields down, risk assets may like the easing impulse.

3:30 PM — USD Consumer Price Index (Nov)

  • CPI YoY: Actual TBA | Consensus 3.2% | Previous 3.0%

  • CPI MoM: Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 0.3%

  • Core CPI YoY: Actual TBA | Consensus 3.2% | Previous 3.0%

  • Core CPI MoM: Actual TBA | Consensus TBA | Previous 0.2%

Scenario framing (USD):

  • Hotter than expected: UST yields up (esp. 2Y), USD bid, equities risk a risk-off wobble.

  • Cooler than expected: yields down, USD offered, equities usually catch a risk-on rally.


Friday, December 19 — BoJ headline risk + UK consumer check


N/A — JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: TBA | Previous: 0.5%

  • Why “N/A” matters: the time isn’t pinned — so headlines can hit anytime, and liquidity conditions can exaggerate the first move.

  • Most sensitive: USDJPY, JGBs, Nikkei.

N/A — JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

  • Watch for wording changes that imply policy path shifts (even subtle tweaks can matter for JPY).

8:30 AM — JPY BoJ Press Conference

  • This is where the JPY’s “real move” often happens — initial spike, then a directional trend if guidance is clear.

9:00 AM — GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)

  • Actual: TBA | Consensus: 1.0% | Previous: -1.1%

  • How it trades: strong bounce supports GBP at the margin, but it’s usually secondary to BoE/CPI unless it’s a blowout.


Volatility Windows


  • Tuesday 9:00 AM–11:30 AM: GBP labour + EUR PMIs + GBP PMIs (EUR/GBP cross can get jumpy).

  • Tuesday 3:30 PM–4:45 PM: US macro dump + US PMIs (USD + yields, then equities).

  • Thursday 2:00 PM–3:45 PM: BoE (2:00 PM) → ECB (3:15 PM) → US CPI (3:30 PM) → ECB presser (3:45 PM)This is the week’s highest whipsaw risk window across GBP, EUR, USD, and global rates.

  • Friday (un-timed) + 8:30 AM: BoJ decision headline risk into the press conference (JPY gap risk).


Top 5 market-moving events


  1. Thursday 2:00 PM — BoE rate decision + minutes + vote split (plus a locked summary)

  2. Thursday 3:30 PM — US CPI (YoY + core)

  3. Thursday 3:15 PM & 3:45 PM — ECB decision/statement + locked press conference

  4. Friday N/A & 8:30 AM — BoJ decision + press conference

  5. Tuesday 3:30 PM — US data cluster (payrolls/earnings + retail sales/control group listed together)

 
 
 

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